The 95th Oscars are just around the corner. The nominees for every category have been announced as of January 24. The final winners will be announced this Sunday, March 12, 2023, at the Oscars ceremony at Dolby theaters. So, now we will try to predict the winners from the nomination list based on how they performed throughout this award season.
Ten films have been nominated for Best Picture. Among the nominees are “All Quiet on the Western Front, “Avatar: The Way of Water,” “The Banshees of Inisherin,” “Elvis,” “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” “The Fabelmans,” “TAR,” “Top Gun: Maverick,” “Triangle of Sadness,” and “Women Talking.”
Prediction: “Everything Everywhere All At Once” has the strongest chance to win the Best Picture award. Firstly, the Film got 11 nominations, which is the highest number of nominations for a single film in the history of the Oscars. This shows how much the Film is beloved among the members of the Academy. But most importantly, it won the PGA (Producers Guild of America) Award, which is the most important indicator of the Best Picture winner. It also won the Best Picture award at the Critics’ Choice Awards. Before this, only four films (“American Beauty,” “No Country for Old Men,” “Argo,” and “Slumdog Millionaire”) had won all four major Guild Awards (PGA, DGA, WGA, and SAG), and all four of these films went on to win Best Picture. Similarly, “Everything Everywhere All At Once” also won all those Guild Awards, which is why it is predicted to win the Best Picture Oscar too.
But there can be one or two upsets. Netflix’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” has won the BAFTA for Best Film and also has nine Oscar nominations. “The Banshees of Inisherin” also has a slight chance, as it won Best Picture (Comedy or Musical) at the Golden Globes. “Top Gun: Maverick” is such a beloved film, but its Best Picture chances are now looking slim.
Nominees for Best Director are Martin McDonagh for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert for “Everything Everywhere All At Once,” Steven Spielberg for “The Fabelmans,” Todd Field for “TAR,” and Ruben Ostlund for “Triangle of Sadness.”
Daniels is the obvious front-runner here, being the winner of the Directors’ Guild of America. This director duo has also won the Critics Choice Award. Their only competitor is Steven Spielberg, who has won the Golden Globes. But other than the Globes, Spielberg hasn’t won much in the other award shows, whereas Daniels has been consistently winning in many critic circles. Some experts are predicting Todd Fields, but his chances are very slim, as he hasn’t won in any major award show.
The nominees for Best Actor in a Leading Role are Austin Butler for “Elvis,” Colin Farrell for “The Banshees of Inisherin,” Brendan Fraser for “The Whale,” Paul Mescal for “Aftersun,” and Bill Nighy for “Living.”
This category is very competitive this year, and that is why it is very hard to predict. Most members of the Academy are from the acting branch, and Brendan Fraser’s SAG (Screen Actors’ Guild) win indicates that he might end up winning the Oscar too. He has also won the Critics Choice Award. But there is huge competition from Austin Butler, who has won the BAFTA. We all know there is a huge overlap of BAFTA voters in the Academy. So that will be a huge factor for Austin. He also won the Best Actor prize for a drama film at the Golden Globes. But the critics’ darling, Colin Farrell, could also be a surprise winner. We can’t really rule him out, as he won the Best Actor Award for a comedy film at the Golden Globes. But it seems like the momentum is with Austin Butler.
We don’t need to discuss every nominee because this category is now kind of a two-horse race between Michelle Yeoh and Cate Blanchett. The other nominees don’t stand a chance. While Michelle Yeoh has SAG and Golden Globe wins to her name, Cate Blanchett also has the Critics Choice Award and, most importantly, the BAFTA. So, anyone can win between these two legendary actresses.
Best Supporting Actor
This is probably the easiest category to predict the winner in. Ke Huy Quan from “Everything Everywhere All At Once” has literally won almost every award, including the SAG, Golden Globes, Critics’ Choice Awards, etc. Although Barry Keoghan from “The Banshees of Inisherin” has won the BAFTA, not many experts are predicting this win can translate into an Oscar win.
Best Supporting Actress
If Best Supporting Actor was the easiest category to predict, then Best Supporting Actress” is completely the opposite and probably the most competitive of any category in years. For a long time, Angela Bassett in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ” was thought to be winning the Oscar, as she won the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. But she lost the much-needed momentum when Kerry Condon won the BAFTA for her amazing performance in “The Banshees of Inisherin.” But to make things even more interesting, Jamie Lee Curtis of “Everything Everywhere All At Once” won the SAG. Now every expert is scratching their heads to come up with a prediction for this category, as anyone out of these three incredibly talented women can win.
Best Visual Effect
There is really nothing to predict here. “Avatar: The Way of Water” is definitely winning this without a doubt.
Best Animated Feature
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” is the absolute front-runner in this category. It won the Golden Globes and also the Critics Choice Award. There is absolutely no reason for it not to win the Oscar.
Best International Feature
If we look closely at this award season, only two international films won all the award shows. One of them is “RRR,” and the other one is “Decision to Leave.” Shockingly “Decision to Leave” could not earn an Oscar nomination, nor could “RRR,” as the Film was not submitted by the Film Federation of India as India’s official submission to the Oscars. Amidst the absence of these films, Germany’s “All Quiet on the Western Front” surges in. Although it was absent from the major guild awards, it earned a record number of nominations for the BAFTA and the Oscar. Among the films nominated in the Best International Category, only “All Quiet on the Western Front” has Best Picture and other technical nominations. So it is easy to say that it is also winning the Oscar.
Best Original Song
It is a category that we can all agree on: the global phenomenon “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR” is going to win. It is the sole nomination for “RRR,” so that is an added advantage, and it has also won Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards. If the Academy chooses a safer route, they might vote for Lady Gaga or Rihanna, but this year they seem not to stand a chance against “Naatu Naatu.”